Races to Watch on Election Night

Tomorrow is Election Day. But since it’s not a Presidential Election, it might be a little trickier to follow for people who aren’t political obsessives like me. So, I wrote up a short guide to which races you should watch tomorrow to get an indication of where the night is going to go.

First, some context: Democrats are heavily favored to win the House (and probably pick up around 35 seats) and Republicans are heavily favored to win the Senate (and maybe pick up a seat or two). A majority in the House is 218 seats, so Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to take control. They need just two seats in the Senate, but they are defending so many seats that gaining two is a massive uphill climb. Democrats are also favored to pick up several governorships. Certain early races will give us a better indicator of where the night is going to go – if Democrats dominate in the early toss-ups, for example, then they are more likely to outperform expectations elsewhere. If they implode in these early races, the reverse is true.

There are also several other storylines below the battle for Congress – Republican racism and lies, the battle between centrist and progressive Democrats – that will see some resolution on Tuesday. Some of the races outlined here will be useful data points in those storylines.

So, here is a list of 11 races – 5 House, 4 Senate, 2 Governor – to watch tomorrow if you want to follow the big 2018 stories. And if you have other races worth watching that I missed, be sure to let me know (there are 507 races between the House, Senate, and governorships, so there’s a good chance I missed some). Race ratings are all per 538.

 

The House of Representatives:

Kentucky 6 (Toss-up): this race between Amy McGrath (D) and incumbent Andy Barr has been one of the most intense House contests of the cycle. Kentucky tends to report results early on election night, so this may be one of the evening’s first calls. If either candidate loses in a blowout (8+ points), it will be a useful indicator for where the night is going to go. If Barr destroys McGrath, Democrats may still be able to win the House, but it’ll be a close call. If McGrath destroys Barr, Democrats could be headed for a 40+ seat pickup. Democrats do not need this district to take the House, however. So, if they only lose by a point of two here, they’ll still have a good shot of winning the chamber.

New York 19 (Lean D): Antonio Delgado (D) has a narrow lead over incumbent John Faso (R) in a race that has reeked of racism. Faso’s campaign has focused on bashing Delgado (who is black) for his brief career as a rapper. Delgado has been talking about policy. If Faso goes down, Democrats will be on track for at least a narrow House majority. Delgado’s victory will also be a strong repudiation of racism in a fairly white, GOP leaning community. If Faso wins, Republicans may be even further emboldened to double down on racist tactics (not that they’ve been shy this year), and Dems will face a tougher path to the majority.

Georgia 6 (Toss-up): You may remember this district from the first special election of 2017 – Jon Ossoff (D) narrowly lost to Karen Handel (R) in the most expensive House race in US history. Now, Lucy McBath (D), a gun control advocate whose son was murdered at a gas station in 2012, is challenging Handel. This race was expected to be noncompetitive in 2018, but it has tightened considerably in recent weeks and Handel is in danger. If McBath prevails early in the night, or even draws within a point or two, it may portend a strong night for Democrats nationally.

Wisconsin 1 (Likely R): As the seat of retiring Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R), this seat is mostly important for the symbolism. Republicans remain highly likely to win here, so it would be a huge blow for the GOP if Randy Bryce (D) manages to win the seat. It would also indicate the potential for a very good Democratic night.

Nebraska 2 (Toss-up): This is one of the most interesting House races in the country. In the Democratic primary, unabashed progressive Kara Eastman (D) defeated centrist former Representative (and former holder of this seat) Brad Ashford (D). It was a stunning upset and set Eastman on what was expected to be an uphill battle for the seat. If she wins as a Bernie-style progressive in this Republican seat, she will give the leftwing of the Democratic Party a massive hit of momentum. Her victory would demonstrate that hardcore progressives can indeed win in red districts. It would not silence Center left naysayers, but an Eastman win could easily encourage future approaches in similar red/toss-up districts.

 

The Senate

New Jersey (Likely D): Incumbent Bob Menendez (D) should easily win reelection. But his high-profile corruption trial last year (ending in a mistrial) devastated his brand and challenger Bob Hugin (R) is now within single digits. If Menendez loses here, the chances of the Democrats winning the Senate will essentially evaporate. Democrats MUST hold this seat if they want to win the Senate.

Florida (Lean D): This is another state that will destroy Democratic hopes of Senate control if they lose it. Governor Rick Scott (R) has thrown millions into this campaign, but though it is a tight race, incumbent Bill Nelson (D) has had a consistent, narrow lead on average. If Nelson cannot eke it out, Republicans will likely hold the Senate.

North Dakota (Lean R): North Dakota is one of the lynchpin states of this election. Representative Kevin Cramer (R) is currently favored to oust incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp. If he pulls that off, Democrats still have a chance to take the Senate – they don’t strictly need it. But if Heitkamp pulls off the upset and holds her seat, Democrat’s chances of winning the Senate certainly increase considerably.

Texas (Likely R): Can Representative Beto O’Rourke (D) oust incumbent Senator Ted Cruz (R)? O’Rourke has raised a staggering amount of money – nearly $40 million in the third quarter of this year alone. But he’s been consistently down in the polls and the race is Cruz’s to lose. If he pulls it off, O’Rourke will demonstrate that an unabashed progressive message can carry a candidate to victory in a red state. Plus, a victory would be a huge boost in the Democratic quest to take control of the Senate. And even if Democrats lose the Senate, defeating Ted Cruz would be a massive symbolic victory.

 

Governorships

Georgia (Lean R): Perhaps the most significant governor’s race this year is the brawl in Georgia. Stacey Abrams (D), the former minority leader in the state legislature, would be the first black woman to serve as a governor in United States history. She has run as a liberal Democrat, working to activate non-voters. Her opponent, Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R), has been blatantly trying to suppress black voters in the state. It is this year’s clearest attempt to steal an election – yet Abrams remains down by only a point or two. If she pulls off the win, it would be a political earthquake. Abrams would be an instant future Presidential contender (whether in 2020 or 2024) and she could crack open a path to making Georgia more competitive going forward.

Florida (Likely D): This is the other race contending for the title of “most significant governor’s race.” Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum (D) won his primary by running as an unabashed Progressive against the establishment, centrist frontrunner. Gillum’s primary victory was a stunning upset, but he immediately jumped out to a clear lead in the polls over Representative Ron DeSantis (R). DeSantis won the Republican primary on the strength of Trump’s endorsement, his Fox News presence, and his blatant Trump pandering (one campaign video included a scene of him teaching his toddlers about building Trump’s wall). Gillum has led in every single public poll, save one internal DeSantis campaign poll. He is a strong, though not overwhelming, favorite, and he would be the first Democratic governor of Florida in 20 years. And, like Abrams, he would be an immediate future Presidential contender in either 2020 or 2024.

 

Those are the big 11. But there are a bunch of other elections worth watching too if you start getting really into it.

Bonuses:

– New York 27 (Likely R): This is the district of scandal tarred incumbent Chris Collins. This is a heavily competitive district that should never have been competitive, but Collins’ indictment for insider trading earlier this year has thrown it into chaos and given the Democrat a chance.

– Virginia 7 (Toss-up): In 2014, then-challenger Dave Brat (R) stunned the political world by ousting incumbent House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R). Now, Brat faces a fierce challenge from former CIA agent Abigail Spanberger (D). Should Spanberger win, the House Freedom Caucus would lose one of its most prominent members.

– Florida 27 (Likely D): With a retiring Republican incumbent and a heavily Democratic lean, this should be an easy win for Donna Shalala (D). But she has proven to be a weak candidate and has yet to put away newscaster Maria Salazar (R). This could be a rare opportunity for a GOP upset in the House.

– California 45 (Lean D): Katie Porter (D) worked for Senator Elizabeth Warren and has carried Warren’s message into battle in this historically Republican district against incumbent Mimi Walters (R). Porter’s victory here as a Progressive would be another high-impact victory for the party’s left wing.

– California 50 (Likely R): Incumbent Duncan Hunter (R) is another indicted House member fighting for his life in a district that should not be competitive. He has deployed disgustingly racist attack ads against his opponent, Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Campa-Najjar’s victory would be a powerful repudiation of these tactics.

– Senate races in West Virginia (Likely D), Montana (Likely D), Indiana (Lean D), and Missouri (Toss-up): All these races feature Democratic incumbents who are narrowly favored to hold their seats. If any of them go down, the Democratic path to Senate control will become much more difficult.

– Senate races in Nevada (Toss-up) and Arizona (Lean D): Democrats have fielded strong challengers here in an effort to pick off vulnerable GOP seats. If Democrats cannot win here, they will not win the Senate.

– Special Senate Election in Minnesota (Likely D): Incumbent Tina Smith (D) was appointed to replace Senator Al Franken after his resignation last year. Smith has consistently run behind her senior colleague, Amy Klobuchar (D) (Solid D), the second most popular Senator in the country and a potential 2020 contender. Smith is still heavily favored to hold the seat, but this is a spot where Republicans could pull off a surprising upset.

– Governor’s races in Oklahoma (Likely R), Kansas (Toss-up), and South Dakota (Lean R): These are all typical Republican strongholds that are surprisingly close. Wildly unpopular incumbents in Kansas and Oklahoma have made these seats particularly vulnerable. Plus, controversial Kansas nominee Kris Kobach (R) has alienated moderate Republicans in the state. These could be the sites of significant Democratic upsets.

– Governor’s races in Iowa (Toss-up) and Ohio (Toss-up): These states swung hard toward Trump in 2016. Democratic gubernatorial victories in these states could signal renewed Democratic chances in these states in 2020.

– Governor’s race in Wisconsin (Toss-up): Tony Evers (D) is narrowly favored to defeat incumbent Scott Walker (R), who has won three gubernatorial elections since 2010. Walker is hated by organized labor and much of the left, and bringing him down would be a significant symbolic victory.

 

Like I said: there are 507 races between the House, Senate, and Governorships, and that’s not even getting into state legislative or Attorneys General races. I’ve missed quite a few here. But pay attention to these races and you should have a good sense of what’s going on tomorrow night.

 

 

Photo Credit: Phil Roeder, some rights reserved.