Democratic Primary Check-in

With the second Democratic debate over and the field likely to shrink within the next month or two (the qualification criteria for the third debate are much stricter), this feels like a good time to check in on the state of the race. Following the RealClearPolitics average of candidates polling percentages, I’m going to run down the list of 25 (dear god, why) candidates and share my impressions of their campaigns so far.

1. Former Vice President Joe Biden (DE) (32%): Biden has done a lot of terrible things in his long career. In his campaign so far, he has apologized for almost none of them and shown little sign of being a candidate I could trust. His plans are insufficient, he lies about his opponents’ plans, and he pretends that the GOP can be worked with. I will not be voting for Biden.
2. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (16.4%): I have warmed to Bernie over the course of the campaign. In addition to being one of the two leftmost candidates, Bernie has leveraged his campaign in unique ways, alerting supporters to ICE raids and aggressively supporting striking workers. His plans, including Medicare For All, complete student debt forgiveness and free college, and full voter enfranchisement, are great. Bernie is #2 on my list.
3. Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA) (14.8%): Warren not only has great, detailed plans, but she knows how to communicate policy details in a way that builds a broader campaign narrative. Every one of her plans furthers the theme of her campaign: the wealthy and powerful have rigged the system and we need to break their control. Warren is #1 on my list.
4. Senator Kamala Harris (CA) (11%): Harris was brilliant in the first debate, generally comes across as highly competent, and (I suspect) is the most electable candidate. She also came out the gate with support for bold, progressive ideas like Medicare For All and the Green New Deal. However, Harris has since revealed the shallowness of her vision. Her big plans are tax cuts and tax credits. Her Medicare For All plan isn’t Medicare For All. Her student loan forgiveness program is a joke. Her prosecutorial record grows more alarming the more I read about it. I haven’t written Harris off entirely, but she’s now middle of the pack for me.
5. Mayor of South Bend, IN, Pete Buttigieg (5.6%): Buttigieg is great at diagnosing serious structural problems in our society and has correctly observed that there’s no point in moderating our ideas to avoid Republican criticisms. However, his solutions – in the few cases where he has actual plans – fall short of the problems he identifies. We need a candidate who will not just identify our problems but tackle them head on. That’s not Buttigieg. Buttigieg is middle of the pack for me.

6. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (TX) (3%): O’Rourke is Scott Walker 2.0 – a high potential candidate who cannot perform under the spotlight. He’s released some good plans – his criminal justice, immigration, voting rights, and climate platforms are all worth a look – but he has shown no ability to execute. Beto is middle of the pack for me.
7. Senator Cory Booker (NJ) (1.6%): Booker dipped on my list for a while there as his positive campaign seemed ill-suited to the moment. He’s made something of a comeback, however, taking aggressive stands on criminal justice reform and marijuana legalization. He presents himself as progressive, though his record paints a murkier picture (keep an eye out for more reporting on this front if he rises in the polls). For now, Booker is #4 on my list, but with reservations.
8. Andrew Yang (1.6%): Yang performed well at the second debate and brought up issues of technology and domestic work that often aren’t considered at the Presidential level. That’s good and important. But there are good Universal Basic Income plans and there are bad ones, and Yang’s is a terrible one. Plus, he’s wholly unqualified. I will not be voting for Yang.
9. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI) (1%): Gabbard voted to limit Syrian refugees entering the country, virulently opposed marriage equality in her early career, has close ties to Hindu nationalists in India, and has legitimized white Nationalist Tucker Carlson. She’s a fake progressive (she’s defended Joe Biden against the left, for goodness’ sake) whose anti-intervention stance is rooted not in pacifism, but in an America First ideology that is reminiscent of President Trump’s. I will not be voting for Gabbard.
10. Former HUD Secretary Julián Castro (TX) (1%): Castro has released detailed policy platforms that have often influenced the conversation. His plans on immigration and police reform are particularly noteworthy. He’s performed well in the campaign, and though some of his record gives me pause, I am open to considering him right now. Castro is #5 on my list.

11. Former Rep. John Delaney (MD) (<1%): Our nominee should not be a self-funder. Our nominee definitely should not be a multimillionaire self-funder who’s been running for two years and still can’t crack 1%. He should drop out.
12. Tom Steyer: Our nominee should not be a billionaire. Why is this even a question? He should drop out.
13. Rep. Tim Ryan (OH): He should drop out.
14. Senator Amy Klobuchar: To adopt a Warren line, Klobuchar is a candidate running to tell us what we can’t do, even going so far as to say we can’t afford free college on the day Warren released a plan to fully fund free college. If that’s not enough for you, Klobuchar is also an abusive boss. I will not be voting for Klobuchar.
15. Former Governor John Hickenlooper (CO): He should drop out.

16. Mayor of New York City, NY, Bill de Blasio: I was briefly interested in de Blasio after the first debate, but his weak record in New York and his poor performance in the second debate have caused me to write him off. de Blasio should drop out.
17. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (NY): Gillibrand has progressive positions and smart plans. She’s powerful on stage and, like Warren, is brilliant at weaving her policy positions into a coherent narrative about family, motherhood, and women’s rights. That she is polling so poorly is a tragedy. Hopefully her stellar performance in the second debate will help her, but her campaign is certainly in trouble. Gillibrand is #3 on my list.
18. Marianne Williamson: This woman is a crank and does not deserve your vote. I will not be voting for Williamson.
19. Governor Steve Bullock (MT): He’s too moderate for me overall, but his focus on getting money out of politics is a valuable voice in this primary. On the other hand, his weird debate answer about preemptive nuclear strikes was… alarming. Regardless, he really should drop out and run for the Senate. I will not be voting for Bullock.
20. Senator Michael Bennet (CO): He should drop out.

21. Governor Jay Inslee (WA): Inslee’s focus on climate change is great, but he hasn’t actually done a great job of focusing on it at debates. I value his presence in the race, but he has been a weak advocate for his signature issue. Inslee is middle of the pack for me.
22. Mayor of Miramar, FL, Wayne Messam: He should drop out.
23. Former Rep. Joe Sestak (PA): He should drop out.
24. Rep. Seth Moulton (MA): He should drop out.

So, at this point, my top 5 are Warren, Sanders, Gillibrand, Booker, and Castro. Though I’m down on them, I haven’t yet written off Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, or Inslee. I will not be voting for Biden, Klobuchar, Yang, Gabbard, Williamson, or Bullock. Everyone else should just drop out at this point.

Of course, most of those who should drop out never should have entered in the first place, so who knows if anyone will actually read the writing on the wall. We could be putting up with 20+ candidates for some time.

Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore