By The day after the election, a friend of mine texted me to say that the Joe Manchins of the world had done great and Progressives had done horribly.
That’s not quite right though.
Yes, Joe Manchin (D-WV) himself, the most conservative Senate Democrat, won reelection in West Virginia, which Trump carried by 42 points. It’s impressive.
However, his fellow conservative Democrats, Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) and Joe Donnelly (D-IN), were both crushed in other heavy Trump states.
The more liberal but still moderate Claire McCaskill (D-MO) also lost in Missouri, another pro-Trump state. Meanwhile, the even more liberal Jon Tester (D-MT), won in Montana despite multiple Trump rallies in the state.
Centrist Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) won in Arizona with 50% of the vote, 4.5 points better than Clinton did there in 2016. But staunchly liberal Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) lost Texas with 48.3% of the vote, 5 points better than Clinton did there in 2016.
In the House, a bunch of moderate candidates won. But they weren’t Joe Manchin moderates. Many of these moderates were socially liberal – pro-choice, pro-gay. They opposed Single Payer, but still ran on Medicare buy-ins and public options. Not exactly fiscally conservative. Many of them, like Lucy McBath (D-GA), were aggressively pro-gun control.
These were not the centrist Blue Dogs of 2006, a group of Democrats in the Manchin mold. Most of the swing-seat freshmen are liberal Democrats. They may not be progressives in the mold of Bernie Sanders (I-VT), but Manchin and Sanders aren’t the only two members of the Democratic Party.
Some openly Progressive candidates lost competitive races – like Kara Eastman (D-NE) in the Nebraska Second. But some openly Progressive candidates won competitive races – like Katie Porter (D-CA) in the California 45th.
In governor’s races, Andrew Gillum (D-FL) and Stacey Abrams (D-GA) both lost running as Progressives, but both did better than any Democratic party nominee in years.
The conclusion? The 2018 midterms tell you basically nothing about whether progressive or centrist candidates are better positioned to win over red state voters.
You can all go back to arguing over it for another two years now.
Breakdown Politics 