Before Election Day, I published a list of races to watch on Election Night to get a sense of how the evening was going to go. I think it largely proved to be a useful guide, albeit too ambitious for Democrats. Let’s review how those races went.

The House

Kentucky 6: Rated a toss-up. R hold.

New York 19: Rated Lean D. D flip.

Georgia 6: Rated a toss-up. D flip.

Wisconsin 1: Rated as Likely R. R hold.

Nebraska 2: Rated Toss-up. R hold.

I think it’s safe to say that I was a little too ambitious in this list when it came to Democratic chances. This isn’t really the breakdown I was expecting. I anticipated wins in KY06 and NY19, losses in GA6 and WI01, and maybe a narrow win in NE2.

But my analysis still seems to have hit the mark. McGrath (D) lost in KY06, but only by three points. That early, narrow loss was demoralizing, but it did preview a Democratic wave throughout the rest of the House.

NE2 is likely to be the subject of a major internal discussion in the Democratic party. Would the centrist candidate that Kara Eastman (D) beat in the Democratic primary have taken the seat? You can expect Democratic centrists to make a lot of hay out of this loss.

GA06 was the most notable result out of these five. On Election Night, Karen Handel (R) was expected to pull out a narrow victory. It took another day or two for the votes to creep in and the margin to flip, giving Lucy McBath (D) the win.

That seems to be the story of this election, in many ways. GA06 and several other Congressional races weren’t called until days after the election. The Montana Senate race took a couple of days and the Arizona Senate race was only called yesterday. There are still half a dozen House seats out in California that won’t be called for a while yet, not to mention scattered seats elsewhere. On Election Night, it looked like Democrats might “only” pick up 25-30 House seats (they needed 23 for the majority). Now, it looks like they’ll come in just shy of 40.

The Senate

New Jersey: Rated Likely D. D hold.

Florida: Rated Lean D. They’re still counting overseas ballots and there will be a recount, but this is Likely R right now.

North Dakota: Rated Lean R. R flip.

Texas: Rated Likely R. R hold.

The Senate did not go well for Democrats, but it did not go as badly as it could have. Indiana (which I included on my bonus list) wound up crashing and burning to challenger Mike Braun (R) early in the night, portending Democratic collapses in North Dakota, Missouri, and seemingly Florida.

But there were bright spots too. Democrats were defending 26 seats, 10 of which were in states Trump won. They lost four incumbents, but they also picked up GOP seats in Nevada and Arizona, holding Republicans to a net gain of only two seats. Plus, they came within 3 points of Beto (D) winning Texas. Texas! It wasn’t a great night in the Senate, but it could have been vastly worse.

Governorships

Georgia: Rated as Lean R. R hold. Stacey Abrams (D) hasn’t conceded yet, which is the right decision given Kemp’s clear effort to steal the election. If Abrams picks up a few thousand more votes in provisional and absentee ballots, she’ll force a run-off, but it’s looking highly unlikely.

Florida: Rated as Likely D. R hold. Andrew Gillum (D) conceded on Election Night, but the race has narrowed as more votes have come in. He’s within .41 points of Ron DeSantis (R) now, which is close enough for a recount, but he’s unlikely to pick up enough votes to overturn that result.

The governor’s races were probably the most devastating part of the night for Democrats. Democrats picked up 7 states, but fell short in 6 other competitive races, including Georgia and Florida. Florida was particularly painful, as Andrew Gillum’s (D) expected win suddenly evaporated. Democrats left a lot of opportunities on the table here.

Bonuses

– New York 27: Rated as Likely R. R hold. Scandal tarred incumbent Chris Collins (R) is clinging to a slim lead, but challenger Nate McMurray (D) has called for a recount. Collins is likely to hold on.

– Virginia 7 Rated a Toss-up. D flip. (Democrat Abigail Spanberger is pictured at the top of the article.)

– Florida 27 Rated as Likely D. D flip.

– California 45 Rated as Lean D. Incumbent Mimi Walters (R) still leads, but her lead is plunging day by day as mail ballots come in. Katie Porter (D) is expected to pull out the win. Likely D.

– California 50 Rated as Likely R. R hold.

Of these five, Democrats won or are expected to win three and came tantalizingly close to knocking off indicted incumbents in the other two. Like the first five House races, this list shows a great but not overwhelming victory for Democrats. Failing to take down Collins and Hunter is especially hard to swallow given their blatant corruption. These are extremely Republican districts though, so it’s not a shock.

 

– Senate races in West Virginia (Likely D, D hold), Montana (Likely D, D hold), Indiana (Lean D, R flip), and Missouri (Toss-up, R flip).

– Senate races in Nevada (Toss-up, D flip) and Arizona (Lean D, D flip).

– Special Senate Election in Minnesota (Likely D, D hold).

Most of these, except for Indiana, went as expected. Democrats held their Senate losses to a minimum, even if they did lose valuable incumbents in red states.

 

– Governor’s races in Oklahoma (Likely R, R hold), Kansas (Toss-up, D flip), and South Dakota (Lean R, R hold).

– Governor’s races in Iowa (Toss-up, R hold) and Ohio (Toss-up, R hold).

– Governor’s race in Wisconsin (Toss-up, D flip).

Kansas and Wisconsin were the real bright spots in gubernatorial contests this year. In Kansas, Democrats took down Kris Kobach, an awful man who led Trump’s voter fraud commission. And in Wisconsin, Democrats finally, after four elections, beat Scott Walker. That offers some sense of victory, even as they came up short in other seemingly gettable states.

Overall, it was an excellent night for Democrats. They won an unwinnable House, picked up half a dozen governorships (not to mention literally hundreds of state legislative seats) and kept their losses in the Senate limited enough that the chamber should be competitive in 2020.

Not half bad.

 

 

Photo Credit: Ezra Deutsch-Feldman under Creative Commons.