By It’s not easy.
This year, Democrats have 26 seats up for reelection. Republicans have only 9. In other words, Republicans have nearly three times as many opportunities to pick up states as Democrats do. On top of that, most of those 9 Republican seats are heavily Republican – Nevada is the only state in that group that voted for Clinton in 2016. By contrast, Democrats are defending seats in 10 states that Trump won in 2016.
How did Democrats get into this mess? Mostly through the weirdness of the Senate. Senate terms last for six years and one third of all Senate seats (33-34) go up for election every two years (this year also has special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi). The class of Senators up for reelection this year was last up for election in 2012 and 2006. These were both good Democratic years – 2006 was the last Democratic wave against an unpopular Republican President, and 2012 was President Obama’s reelection. Favorable national environments in those years let Democrats rack up a huge advantage. But now they’re wildly overexposed.
The one saving grace Democrats have is that it’s a midterm year during the administration of an unpopular Republican President. The opposition party always has an edge during midterms. Honestly, if Hillary Clinton had won, Democrats might be looking at double digit losses in the Senate. Given Republicans have 51 seats right now (and would have had 52 under a President Clinton; there never would have been a special Senate election in Alabama), such a wipe out would have given Republicans a Senate supermajority. *
In our world, the likeliest outcomes are Republican picking up a seat or two, or the margin staying the same. If the GOP gets especially lucky, they could maybe pick up four or five seats, but that’s not looking probable (yet). Democrats still have a shot at Senate control, but it’s declining.
So, let’s assume that the Senate forecasts are right, and the GOP picks up a seat for a 52-48 majority come January. How do Democrats mount a comeback?
Fortunately for Democrats, 2020 offers a much more favorable map: 21 GOP seats to 12 Democratic seats. The 2020 class was last up in 2014, a year that saw a massive red wave and a 9-seat pickup for the GOP. But, again, that leaves them overexposed in 2020.
Some of the races where Democrats might be able to go on offense: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina. Some of those will be heavier lifts than others, but that’s up to 7 seats Democrats could pick up.
(Some notes: the Arizona seat will be a special election for John McCain’s former Senate seat; it will be up again in 2022. It is currently occupied by once-and-present Senator Jon Kyl. Kyl is highly unlikely to run for reelection in 2020, so the seat will likely be competitive in both 2020 and 2022. Additionally, the Senator from Maine up for reelection in 2020 is Susan Collins, who recently drew the national spotlight to herself in a rather negative fashion.)
However, the GOP may also have some opportunities for offense. Democratic seats in New Hampshire and Virginia are always hard fought. Democrats in Michigan and Minnesota may also be in danger if Trump can replicate his 2016 strength in the Midwest. Plus, Doug Jones is up for reelection in Alabama and is… probably doomed, honestly. That’s up to 5 seats Republicans could grab.
If both parties win all these pickup opportunities, Democrats will gain a net +2 seats leading to a 50-50 tie, in which case control of the Senate would depend on the President and Vice President. But if Democrats hold all their seats and get all their pickups, they’ll have a 55-45 margin.
Republicans are also overexposed again in 2022 (21 to 12), meaning Democrats would have another chance to take the chamber that year.
But you can see how this quickly becomes messy and confusing to game out. Every cycle heavily impacts the math for the next cycle. So, if Democrats implode this year, then winning the Senate in 2020 becomes much harder even with a favorable map. If Republicans implode, then it will be a herculean task for them to take back the Senate in 2020.
I guess all that is just a long way to say that the 2018 midterms don’t just impact 2019 and 2020. Our performance in November will echo all the way to 2024.
Elections have consequences indeed.
* (There are scenarios in which Republicans under a President Hillary Clinton could have secured a veto-proof majority. Now that is terrifying.)
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