By One way or another, the Kavanaugh drama will almost certainly end this weekend. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has scheduled the final confirmation vote for tomorrow (Saturday), and shows no signs of pausing for anything else. All but two Senators have now made their intentions on Kavanaugh clear.* Both Senators will have to vote against Kavanaugh to block his confirmation. If only one of them votes against him, he will still make it onto the Court. The Senators in question are:
Susan Collins (R-ME)
Joe Manchin (D-WV)
Both are moderates. Both voted today to end debate and move forward with the confirmation vote. But that doesn’t mean they’ll vote for Kavanaugh in the end. Collins will announce her final decision at 3 p.m. today, which will likely leave Manchin as the only undecided vote.
And Manchin is no doubt praying that Collins votes yes.
If Collins votes to confirm Kavanaugh, then that’s it. Barring a dramatic change (let us not forget Senator McCain’s example), Kavanaugh will be on the Court. The pressure on Manchin will ease up considerably because his vote will no longer matter to the final outcome. He can vote however he feels is best for his state.
If Collins says that she will vote against Kavanaugh, however, then it all comes down to Manchin. Either he’ll be the decisive vote blocking Kavanaugh or he’ll be the decisive vote – and sole Democrat – to confirm Kavanaugh.
With Manchin up for reelection in November, this is the kind of high-profile choice he desperately does not want to make.
West Virginia is a heavily pro-Trump state and voted for Trump over Hillary by a whopping 42-point margin in 2016. Nonetheless, Manchin has been consistently running ahead of his Republican opponent throughout his reelection campaign. Race raters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate his race as Lean Democratic, a good sign. Manchin has a long political history in West Virginia and a strong personal brand. He’s the most conservative Democrat in Congress and he prides himself on his independence. Before Kavanaugh, that independence seemed likely to bring Manchin a solid, if hard-won, victory.
But if he becomes the decisive vote on Kavanaugh, things get complicated.
Say he votes for Kavanaugh. He will be the only Democrat to vote for Kavanaugh, a nominee the Democratic base has come to truly hate. What if the base abandons him? Democrats have a significant enthusiasm advantage this year that has been helping to prop Manchin up. If he votes for Kavanaugh, that enthusiasm could evaporate and cost Manchin crucial support. Suddenly, he’s in a much tougher fight.
But say he votes against Kavanaugh. He will be the man who brought down President Trump’s nominee. That will enrage Trump, and Trump may come after Manchin hard. Plus, it puts Manchin’s independence from his party in jeopardy. If he votes against Kavanaugh amid a sustained Democratic pressure campaign, it may look like he caved to the party. Turns out he isn’t so independent after all. Independents and Republicans who were leaning Manchin might decide that maybe they should vote for the Republican. Suddenly, Manchin’s in a much tougher fight.
Basically, he’s screwed either way.
So, as dearly as most Democrats want Collins to vote no on Kavanaugh (and boy do we), Manchin probably wants Collins to vote yes. When McCain voted down Obamacare repeal, he knew that, one way or another, he probably wasn’t going to be facing reelection. Manchin faces reelection in one month. With the Kavanaugh story dominating headlines, there will be no escaping if he winds up being the decisive vote.
Whatever happens, we should know by the end of tomorrow.
(Just watch Manchin scoop me and announce his vote as soon as I post this.)
*The current vote count on confirmation is 49-49. Earlier in the week, there were a handful of swing votes besides Manchin and Collins – Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), Jeff Flake (R-AZ), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Heitkamp announced earlier in the week that she would vote no on Kavanaugh, Flake announced today that he would vote yes, and Murkowski announced today that she would vote no. If Manchin and Collins vote in opposite directions, Vice President Mike Pence will be needed to break the tie, leading to a 51-50 final split.
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